Go one year, we put overmuch view on American body, however the European Union already surmounted the United States to become associate of our country the biggest commerce. Probably 2009, the bad news that comes from Europe will cause big impact to Chinese economy.
Heart volition bank issued a report a few days ago, area of tone low euro 2008, GDP increase rate calculated a value 2009, from this before 1.7% with 0.8% attune low to 1.2% with 0.1% . Analysts of this foreign currency think, for opposite dollar, at present the exchange rate of euro by greatly overmeasure, euro is probably to the long-term equilibrium rate of exchange of the dollar 1.2, that is to say, euro devalues 20% ability “ is balanced ” . Europe the leader of an alliance wants Hans of director of research center of policy of Europe of brain truster orgnaization · horse Teng Si says, european Union economy is entering the winter that accords with standard definition.
European economy foreground is bleak, give China economy, export growth especially overhand shadow. Area of big China of heart volition bank is presiding economist horse fine horse thinks, european economy slowdown the biggest impact that 2009 will be experience of Chinese foreign trade. Calculate according to his, increase rate of euro region economy reached decelerate 2009 0.1% , euro will devalue to the RMB 10% , below double blow, china is added to the exit of euro area fast probable from 2008 26% fall 0 2009. 20% what because euro area and England occupy China,export entirely, the immediate effect that Ma Jun estimates to European economy put delay, exchange rate to go weak considerably 2009 is, increase rate of Chinese overall exit drops two percent. Not only such, european economy is stagnant, to the demand decrescent of other country, can bring about China to receive block to these area exit. Two addition, the increase rate that China exports will drop probably 4 percent, to China the influence of GDP can amount to 0.7 percent. Be pounded among them the biggest will be electronic product and textile.
Besides Europe, in the concussion that Chinese exit was faced with 2009, still a force comes from Japan. The figure that from Chinese custom total arrange announced on August 11 looks, japan is before 2008 7 the middle of a month are our country the 3rd large trade is companionate. Before 7 months, our country exports the forehead to be 65.48 billion dollar to Japan, but China is put in adverse balance of trade to Japanese commerce, and the forehead is spent relatively raised 7 billion dollar last year. Like Europe, one word of ” of usable “ backwater describes Japan's current economic situation () of language of Japanese Central Bank, the economic dilate that its maintain 6 years or already ended, do not eliminate to enter the likelihood of decline. Economy of international of Chinese diplomacy institute fastens director Jiang Ruiping to think, japan is the big market of country of East Asia exit, japanese economic depression can affect East Asia export. In addition, if Japanese economy gave an issue, right China direct investment will be broken stream.
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